Tuesday morning the
Financial Times reported that China and Brazil are planning to use their own currencies to trade rather than using the dollar. This means that China would pay for products like Brazilian oil and beef using the Brazilian Real and not the U.S. dollar. Brazil would, in turn, accept the Renminbi from the Chinese. Although, this prospective trade agreement wouldn't break the U.S., it could be a first leak in the dike. The Chinese have already expressed their support for Russia's initiative to develop a new global reserve currency as an alternative to the U.S. dollar, but the $2 trillion the Chinese have in foreign exchange reserves have kept them from being more aggressive. An agreement with Brazil would allow them to reduce their dollar reserves slightly, since they wouldn't need the dollar to trade with Brazil.
Why do you care? If another currency or basket of currencies eventually replaced the dollar as the reserve currency, the U.S. would face higher interest rates to attract capital, reducing economic growth for the long-term. Consider an
article published in "The Economist" on May 14th which said,
"Having spent a fortune bailing out their banks, Western governments will have to pay a price in terms of higher taxes to meet the interest on that debt. In the case of countries (like Britain and America) that have trade as well as budget deficits, those higher taxes will be needed to meet the claims of foreign creditors. Given the political implications of such austerity, the temptation will be to default by stealth, by letting their currencies depreciate. Investors are increasingly alive to this danger..."
According to the Federal Reserve, there is $829 billion dollars of U.S. currency currently in circulation; the majority being held outside the United States. As of May 7, 2009, the total U.S. federal debt was $11,256,266,640,050.20, ranked 12th in the world. This debt is about 80 percent of GDP. Its no wonder the Chinese are concerned.
Didn't Confucius say,
"A journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step."