Is the ADP jobs report a reliable predictor of Non Farm Payroll numbers?
Today's numbers from the ADP jobs report came in better than expected. ADP estimates private payrolls rose 187,000 in January versus expectations of 140,000 although December was revised down by 50,000 from its original 297,000.
But even with the December downward revision, the two month average is a around 217,000.
Still, Friday’s Non Farm Payroll figures are always more relevant. So can traders rely on the ADP report to accurately predict what the numbers will be on Friday?
I think not.
Wednesday's ADP report doesn’t help anyone accurately predict Non Farm Payroll data. Historically, the average ADP prediction missed by 90,000 - not a very good crystal ball, I'd say.